Daily Price Trends of Raw Materials:
Iron Ore: On November 14, the price of mainstream imported iron ore products in Shandong ports showed a slight weakening compared to the previous business day, with cumulative drops of 5-10 RMB per wet ton. On the selling side, regional traders showed moderate enthusiasm for quoting prices, and so far, there has been little spot market transaction activity. However, the market sentiment for March-end contracts was relatively active in Shandong. On the buying side, regional steel mills maintained essential purchases, with some restocking at lower prices. Some traders have a positive outlook on the future market, indicating speculative demand. Currently, the mainstream prices are 750-753 RMB for PB fines, 640-645 RMB for super special fines, and 860-865 RMB for PB lumps.
Scrap Steel: On November 14, the average price of scrap steel across 45 major markets in China was 2201 RMB per ton, down by 3 RMB per ton from the previous business day. As of the afternoon of the 14th, scrap steel price adjustments varied nationwide: 15 steel mills raised prices by 10-50 RMB per ton, while 8 mills lowered prices by 10-20 RMB per ton. Market dynamics indicate that the market is oscillating with a weaker trend. With steel entering its traditional low-demand season and prices declining, transaction volume is moderate, and the profit margins of steel mills are gradually narrowing, which may limit the rebound in scrap steel prices to some extent. However, due to tight scrap steel resources and winter stockpiling expectations, prices still have some support. Additionally, certain market players face operational pressures, with high raw scrap costs, leading them to sell more actively due to shrinking processing profits. Thus, the scrap steel market is expected to remain stable on the 15th.
Coke: On November 14, the coke market prices trended weakly. On the supply side, coke plants actively sold products, with manageable inventory levels. With two rounds of price cuts implemented, coke profit margins have shrunk, yet coke plants are still able to maintain profitability as raw coal prices have also declined, ensuring relatively stable coke supply. Downstream, hot metal production has slightly decreased, and some steel mills have blast furnace maintenance plans. Although there is talk of a third round of coke price reductions expected on the 15th, no steel mills have confirmed this so far, making a reduction likely in the near term. Short-term forecasts suggest coke prices will continue to trend weakly.
Steel Market Price Forecast：
Supply Side: According to Mysteel's survey, the total production of the five major steel products reached 8.6158 million tons this week, marking a slight weekly increase of 0.09 million tons. Production of rebar, cold-rolled coils, and medium-thick plates rose, while the output of wire rods and hot-rolled coils declined.
Inventory: This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 150,000 tons to 12.0379 million tons. Specifically, steel mill inventories dropped by 77,400 tons to 3.9113 million tons, and social inventories decreased by 72,600 tons to 8.1266 million tons.
