International Maritime Strategies (MSI) Raises 2024 Tanker Order Forecast by 20% to 60.8 Million DWT, Marking the Second-Highest Contract Level in History
According to MSI's model for new tanker orders above 10,000 DWT, the company's data shows that tanker orders for the first 11 months of 2024 have reached 55 million DWT. The "almost certain" full-year figure will reach levels second only to 2006.
Market conditions are expected to limit contracting activities between 2025 and 2028, with a surge in deliveries projected for 2026.
MSI anticipates tanker deliveries in 2025 to total 19.4 million DWT, with approximately 12 million DWT scheduled for delivery in the second half of the year. The accelerated pace of order deliveries in 2023 and 2024 is expected to result in 37 million DWT being delivered in 2026.
In the first 11 months of last year, Chinese very large crude carriers (VLCCs) accounted for 40% of tanker orders, all contracted with shipyards. Chinese shipowners dominated the order book in the second half of the year, overtaking European and Middle Eastern shipowners from the first half. VLCC orders for 2024 include new vessels from China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation.
MSI added that sales of Suezmax tankers were relatively slow during the summer, with only two vessels ordered between August and September, and no uncoated Aframax tanker orders placed since September.
Tim Smith, MSI Director, commented: "In any forward-looking assessment of the shipping market, the most 'predictable' factor is always vessel deliveries, at least over the next one to two years. However, with contract volumes continuing to rise, the outlook faces pressure." He added, "MSI believes new vessel deliveries will outpace anticipated scrappage volumes, thereby weighing on utilization rates throughout the forecast period."
According to DNV's Alternative Fuel Insight platform, a total of 129 crude oil tankers with alternative fuel capabilities have been ordered, including 126 LNG-capable vessels, two ammonia-powered ships, and one methanol-powered vessel. In the oil/chemical tanker segment, the platform shows 115 LNG-powered vessels and 58 methanol-powered ships.
