On April 7, Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released China's shipping climate report for the first quarter of 2024.According to the report, in the first quarter of 2024, China's shipping sentiment index was 103.88 points, down 6.09 points from the previous quarter, maintaining the micro business range; at the same time, China's shipping confidence index was 114.77 points, up 17.13 points from the previous quarter, rising from the weak recession to the relative business range, and all business confidence index returned to the business range.
On the whole, China's shipping industry is improving, and shipping entrepreneurs' confidence in market operation has increased significantly.
Looking forward to the market trend in the second quarter of 2024, Zhou Dequan, director of China Shipping Climate Index Compilation Office, told the reporter of Securities Times · E Company that according to the survey, the climate index and confidence index of all types of shipping enterprises in the second quarter are expected to rise to varying degrees, and the shipping market continues to repair upward in the second quarter.
The confidence index of shipping enterprises rose sharply From the perspective of segment industries, in the first quarter of 2024, the shipping climate index was 110.35 points, slightly up 2.75 points from the previous quarter, entering the relative range; the shipping confidence index was 108.31 points, up 22.48 points from the previous quarter, rising from the relatively depressed range to the micro range.
The overall operating conditions of shipping enterprises are improving, and entrepreneurs' confidence in the future has improved.
From the perspective of various business indicators, the operating cost of shipping enterprises continues to increase, the utilization rate of shipping space continues to decline, but the freight income increases, the enterprise profit is still good; the labor demand increased, the loan debt decreased, working capital, enterprise financing is relatively easy, and based on the confidence in the future market, shipowners gradually raise the capacity investment willingness.
However, dry bulk cargo transport enterprises fell into the micro business range.
In the first quarter of 2024, the climate index of dry bulk carriers was 107.7 points, down 10.72 points from the previous quarter, falling into the micro business range; the confidence index of dry bulk carriers was 115.71 points, up 2.92 points from the previous quarter, maintaining in the relative business range.
The overall operation of dry bulk transportation enterprises has fallen, but entrepreneurs are still optimistic about their confidence in market operation.
From the point of various management indicators, this quarter dry bulk cargo transportation enterprise operating costs rose sharply, ship turnover decline, but due to the freight income is still at higher levels, enterprise capacity, lead to enterprise earnings is still optimistic, liquidity, debt reduced, enterprise financing is relatively easy, enterprise anti-risk ability to strengthen, enterprise ship capacity investment will rise, but the enterprise labor demand fell.
Confidence in container transport enterprises has improved significantly The report shows that the confidence of the container transport enterprises has been significantly improved.
In the first quarter of 2024, the climate index of container transport enterprises was 110.78 points, up 9.53 points from the previous quarter, and the confidence index of container transport enterprises was 101.07 points, a sharp increase of 38.57 points from the previous quarter, entering the micro climate range from the relatively depressed range.
The overall operating situation of container transportation enterprises is stable and improving, and entrepreneurs' confidence in the overall development of the industry has improved.
From the perspective of various business indicators, the capacity of container transport enterprises continues to decrease, the space utilization rate drops, the operating cost rises sharply, resulting in the poor profitability, the index is relatively prosperous, the enterprise financing difficulty is low, loan debt continues to decrease, labor demand increases, but the entrepreneurs are still not willing to invest in ship capacity.
And Chinese port enterprises fell into the depressed range.
In the first quarter of 2024, the climate index of China port enterprises was 95.05 points, down 22.18 points from the previous quarter, falling into the weak range, and the confidence index of port enterprises was 124.0 points, up 10.57 points from the previous quarter, rising from the relative range to the relative range.
China's port enterprises are in poor condition, but port entrepreneurs still have more confidence in the future development of the market.
From the perspective of various operating indicators, the operating costs of port enterprises maintain a high level, the port charges continue to decline, the port throughput and the utilization rate of berths decline significantly, making the profitability of enterprises poor.
The assets and liabilities of enterprises have increased, and the demand for labor force has decreased, but the working capital of port enterprises is still abundant, the financing difficulty of enterprises is also reduced, and the new berths and machinery investment of port enterprises have increased.
In addition, the climate index of shipping service enterprises in the quarter was 104.08 points, down 1.77 points from the previous quarter, maintaining in the micro business range; the confidence index of shipping service enterprises was 114.16 points, up 16.57 points from the previous quarter, entering the relative business range from the weak recession range.
More than 40% of the container transport enterprises choose to detour to deal with the Red Sea crisis Looking ahead, the report expects a continued repair of the shipping market in the second quarter.
According to the China shipping climate survey, the second quarter of 2024 is expected to be 111.92 points, up 8.04 points compared with the quarter, entering the relative business range; China shipping confidence index is expected to be 118.72 points, up 3.95 points compared with the quarter, maintaining the relative business range.
Overall, in the second quarter, the climate index and confidence index of all types of shipping enterprises are expected to rise to varying degrees, and the shipping market will continue to repair upward in the second quarter.
It is worth noting that the Red Sea crisis has lasted for three months since mid-November 2023, causing a significant impact on the shipping industry.
In this context, the China Shipping Climate Index Compilation Office of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center conducted a survey on the relevant shipping enterprises on the response measures to the Red Sea crisis.
According to the survey results, 25.29% of the shipping companies surveyed chose to go around the Cape to meet the Red Sea crisis; 17.24% said they would actively try to resume the Red Sea route, and 6.90% said they would suspend all Red Sea routes.
Among the dry bulk carriers surveyed, 20.69% said they bypassed the Cape to address the Red Sea crisis; 10.34% said they would actively try to resume the Red Sea route; and 6.90% said they would suspend all Red Sea routes.
Among the container transport enterprises surveyed, 31.28% said they chose to bypass the Cape of Good Hope to cope with the Red Sea crisis; 18.18% said they would actively try to restore the Red Sea route; 9.09% said they would increase the capacity of European routes or suspend all the Red Sea routes to cope with the Red Sea crisis.
" Through the above investigation, the red sea crisis to nearly half of shipping companies caused a certain degree of influence, more than forty percent container transport enterprises choose from the cape of Africa or choose to stop to deal with the crisis, the red sea crisis makes the red sea shipping volume decline, cause a certain degree of threat to the global shipping capacity.
" Zhou Dequan said.
