Despite the installation of over 10,000 energy-saving devices in the global fleet, the latest data shows that by 2026, nearly half of the existing oil tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships will face the severe challenges posed by international carbon emission regulations.
According to Clarkson Research, within two years, 46% of vessels will have a Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) rating of D or E, which means they will face increased commercial and regulatory pressure.
Starting from January 1, 2023, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandated that all ships calculate their existing Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) to assess their energy efficiency and initiate an annual CII rating report. The CII rating requires ship owners to collect data and rank the vessel's efficiency on an A-to-E scale, with "E" being the worst and "A" the best. Ships must achieve at least a C rating; if a ship is rated E or has a D rating for three consecutive years, it must develop a corrective plan within its Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP).
As time progresses, the CII targets will become more stringent, and the aging fleet places these vessels in a highly disadvantageous position in future CII assessments.
In recent years, the decline in ship scrapping rates has led to an increase in the average age of the global fleet. Data shows that the average age of bulk carriers has risen from 10.2 years five years ago to 12.5 years, tankers have increased from 10.9 years to 13.6 years, and container ships have grown from 12.4 years to 13.8 years.
Despite the tough challenges, shipowners are not sitting idly by. In their search for breakthroughs in energy efficiency, the adoption of various energy-saving technologies has become a hot topic in the industry.
Currently, 237 ships have installed air lubrication systems on their hulls, and 56 ships are equipped with wind propulsion devices. In terms of newbuilds, the order quantity for air lubrication systems has reached 332 units, and wind propulsion devices stand at 87 units. These technologies can significantly reduce vessel resistance, thereby reducing fuel consumption, but their adoption speed remains limited.
Although the IMO has yet to define a regulatory framework for carbon capture technology, 36 ships have already deployed carbon capture devices, with 12 more orders in the pipeline. The operational performance of these vessels demonstrates the industry's experimental approach to cutting-edge technology in the absence of clear policy direction.
Marine batteries are also becoming more common on vessels of 100 gross tons and above, with 612 ships currently utilizing them. Additionally, low-cost and easy-to-install energy-saving devices such as rudder bulbs, propeller ducts, and blade-tip fins are gaining popularity among shipowners. The installation of rudder bulbs has exceeded 4,000 units, while the application of propeller ducts and blade-tip fins has reached around 3,000 ships.
With the implementation of the CII and tightening future regulations, the challenges faced by the shipping industry are not just technical but also related to business models. Shipowners who lag behind in energy efficiency and fuel transformation will gradually lose their competitive edge in the market. In contrast, companies that invest early in energy-saving technologies and green fuels may gain a competitive advantage in the new regulatory environment.
Despite the ongoing enthusiasm for energy-saving technologies in the shipping industry, relying solely on technological upgrades is not enough to fully meet the challenges posed by the CII. In the future, the industry may face more significant structural adjustments, including accelerated scrapping of aging ships, optimization of vessel operating efficiency, and larger-scale fuel innovations. These trends will not only redefine the industry landscape but also play a key role in the global green economic transformation.
In this "race" around carbon emissions, only those shipping companies that can strike a balance between short-term responses and long-term strategies will be able to solidify their position and become drivers of the global green economy.
